Organizations are competing for employees and, in a flat world, the competition for the best and the brightest is global. Manpower Inc. recently surveyed nearly 37,000 firms in 27 countries; 41 percent were having difficulty finding employees with skills to match the job openings.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has projected a deficit of some 3 million workers in the U.S. by 2010. A mixture of 79 million aging baby boomers, low birth rates, stable workforce participation rates, and restrictions on the entry of immigrants are the ingredients for projected workforce growth rates of less than 0.2 percent from 2010 to 2020.

But it isn't just about the gross supply of labor - it's also about mismatches between skills and the jobs available. As firms reduce costs, high-wage, low-skill jobs continue to move offshore, and roughly 80 percent of new jobs require some advanced skills. Industries that need employees with specialized education and training will increasingly compete for limited pools of employees.

In many skilled occupations, demand is outstripping the supply, resulting in what McKinsey consultants in 1998 called a "war for talent."

However, the labor markets vary. Helen Handfield-Jones, one of the original McKinsey authors, recently wrote that she now sees different demands for occupations. She classified work into three broad categories: talent-intensive roles, specialized-skill roles, and low-skilled roles - a spectrum ranging from brain force to brawn force. Within each category, the talent war looks distinctly different.

Low-skilled, low-paying jobs, such as retail sales, cashiers, and wait staff, will have little competition. The state Department of Labor reports that the highest concentration of new jobs here will be in this category. Almost 40 percent of New Mexico jobs required only short-term, on-the-job training.

Jobs that take years of training and education - everything from nurses to electricians - will be in limited supply for the short term. The demand for nurses is such that recruiting strategies provide a glimpse at what we can expect to see for other skilled workers. New Mexico has more than 11,000 nurses, according to the DOL, with an expected growth rate of 36 to 40 percent. Strategies nationally include monetary incentives to poach from other employers and hiring immigrants (a large number of nurses are from Canada and the Philippines).

Jobs that can be done in another location, such as tax preparation, are increasingly being outsourced or off-shored. Still others are being automated.

Talent-intensive jobs are the high-paying work of the new economy - the knowledge workers. These positions are at the heart of the war for talent because of the differential quality of performance and the time it takes to develop a seasoned pro. The salary differential in this group is high as well. The work done by this cohort requires more decisions, more risk, and more creativity.

Because opportunities exist globally for this group, they tend to be highly mobile. Some years back, UNM's Office of Institutional Research found that about 40 percent of graduates left the state within three years of graduation.

We'll continue to see a great deal of attention in education, economic development and public policy to preparing the next wave of highly skilled workers and creating communities where they will want to live.